Friday, April 27, 2012

Weekly close important

Last week Nifty made an engulfing bullish pattern and a confirmation this week is necessary for a comfortable week ahead.

Trade based on pivot and averages. Only a firm move above 5218, 5234, 5250 will strengthen bullish view. If not those levels will act as strong resistance.

NIFTY:





OI:


Thursday, April 26, 2012

Wednesday, April 25, 2012

Above 5230 resistance is at 5248/5260

Below 5230 weakness continuous, below 5212, daily pivot weakness increases.

NIFTY:

OI:

Tuesday, April 24, 2012

Turned down

Considering the  extreme overbought situation for the very short term there is a possibility of a short bounce. This may go near 5234 - 5249- 5263 38.2%, 50%, 61.8% retracement of the fall from 5310 to 5187.15. These can be used as opportunity to sell. Mild strength may emerge only after a move above 5162 5 day EMA.

NIFTY:

OI:

Friday, April 20, 2012

Strentgh will emerge upon movement above 5338

Nifty is grinding around this region for two days now. There are quite a lot of resistances crowded in this region and a deceive move above this will strengthen bullish view. Nifty should close above 5279 for this weekly +veness to   persist.


Day Open High Low Close        
4/20/2012 5320.6 5342.45 5291.3 5332.4     Camerilla Levels
Daily Pivot HL5  5384
S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3 HL4 5361
5251 5271 5302 5322 5353 5373 5404 HL3 5346
5 Hr EMA 5 DAvg 5 DEma 13 DEma 21 DEma 34 DEma 55 DEma LL3 5318
5325 5271 5291 5277 5280 5278 5252 LL4 5,304
              LL5 5,281
FIBO Retracement table
From To Fall/Rise 23.60% 38.20% 50% 61.80% 73.60% 80%
5291.5 5337.5 (46) 5327 5320 5315 5309 5304 5301
5342 5293.5 49 5305 5312 5318 5323 5329 5332
5220 5342 (122) 5313 5295 5281 5267 5252 5244
5379 5184 195 5230 5258 5282 5305 5328 5340
5136 5379 (243) 5322 5286 5258 5229 5200 5185
5499 5136 363 5222 5275 5318 5360 5403 5426
5171 5499 (328) 5422 5374 5335 5296 5258 5237
5630 5136 494 5253 5325 5383 5441 5500 5531

Thursday, April 19, 2012

@ 3:25


50 DMA @ 5338 is key for today




Day Open High Low Close        
4/19/2012 5320.7 5342 5293.45 5300

Camerilla Levels
Daily Pivot HL5  5349
S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3 HL4 5327
5233 5263 5282 5312 5330 5360 5379 HL3 5313
5 Hr EMA 5 DAvg 5 DEma 13 DEma 21 DEma 34 DEma 55 DEma LL3 5287
5309 5260 5270 5267 5275 5275 5249 LL4 5,273
              LL5 5,251
FIBO Retracement table
From To Fall/Rise 23.60% 38.20% 50% 61.80% 73.60% 80%
5342 5293.5 49 5305 5312 5318 5323 5329 5332
5220 5342 (122) 5313 5295 5281 5267 5252 5244
5379 5184 195 5230 5258 5282 5305 5328 5340
5136 5379 (243) 5322 5286 5258 5229 5200 5185
5499 5136 363 5222 5275 5318 5360 5403 5426
5171 5499 (328) 5422 5374 5335 5296 5258 5237
5630 5136 494 5253 5325 5383 5441 5500 5531

Wednesday, April 18, 2012

5340, 50 Day SMA is key

5340 is 80% retracement level of the fall from 5379 to 5184 as well. This is HL4 level of Camerilla. This is also Weekly high EMA as well. This level may provide a great resistance but once crossed it will be bulls march. Staying below 5233 may indicate further weakness.





Day Open High Low Close
4/18/2012 5266.6 5298.2 5208.35 5289.7

Camerilla Levels
Daily Pivot HL5  5381
S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3 HL4 5340
5143 5176 5233 5265 5322 5355 5412 HL3 5315
5 Hr EMA 5 DAvg 5 DEma 13 DEma 21 DEma 34 DEma 55 DEma LL3 5265
5270 5245 5255 5262 5272 5273 5247 LL4 5,240
LL5 5,198
FIBO Retracement table
From To Fall/Rise 23.60% 38.20% 50% 61.80% 73.60% 80%
5379 5184 195 5230 5258 5282 5305 5328 5340
5136 5379 (243) 5322 5286 5258 5229 5200 5185
5499 5136 363 5222 5275 5318 5360 5403 5426
5171 5499 (328) 5422 5374 5335 5296 5258 5237
5630 5136 494 5253 5325 5383 5441 5500 5531

Tuesday, April 17, 2012

Volatile day ahead due to RBI monetary review

Staying above 5214, hourly trend remain upwards and may test 5246/5260 50% / 61.8% of the fall from 5307 to 5184. If goes above 5282 which is also the falling trend line, then market may turn upwards. Staying below 5214 will test 5125.


Day Open High Low Close        
4/17/2012 5190.6 5233.5 5183.5 5226.2

Camerilla Levels
Daily Pivot HL5  5277
S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3 HL4 5254
5145 5164 5195 5214 5245 5264 5295 HL3 5240
5 Hr EMA 5 DAvg 5 DEma 13 DEma 21 DEma 34 DEma 55 DEma LL3 5212
5218 5236 5238 5257 5270 5272 5245 LL4 5,199
              LL5 5,176
FIBO Retracement table
From To Fall/Rise 23.60% 38.20% 50% 61.80% 73.60% 80%
5307 5184 123 5213 5231 5246 5260 5275 5282
5136 5379 (243) 5322 5286 5258 5229 5200 5185
5499 5136 363 5222 5275 5318 5360 5403 5426
5171 5499 (328) 5422 5374 5335 5296 5258 5237
5630 5136 494 5253 5325 5383 5441 5500 5531

Monday, April 16, 2012

If reverses within around 100 points then 5600 is in sight





Day Open High Low Close        
4/16/2012 5255.7 5306.75 5185.4 5207.45

Camerilla Levels
Daily Pivot HL5  5329
S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3 HL4 5274
5038 5112 5160 5233 5281 5355 5402 HL3 5241
5 Hr EMA 5 DAvg 5 DEma 13 DEma 21 DEma 34 DEma 55 DEma LL3 5174
5231 5238 5244 5262 5275 5275 5246 LL4 5,141
              LL5 5,086
FIBO Retracement table
From To Fall/Rise 23.60% 38.20% 50% 61.80% 73.60% 80%
5307 5186 121 5215 5232 5247 5261 5275 5283
5136 5379 (243) 5322 5286 5258 5229 5200 5185
5499 5136 363 5222 5275 5318 5360 5403 5426
5171 5499 (328) 5422 5374 5335 5296 5258 5237
5630 5136 494 5253 5325 5383 5441 5500 5531



Friday, April 13, 2012

Closed above the pivot point




Day Open High Low Close        
4/13/2012 5246.75 5290.6 5246.75 5276.85

Camerilla Levels
Daily Pivot HL5  5321
S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3 HL4 5301
5208 5228 5252 5271 5296 5315 5340 HL3 5289
5 Hr EMA 5 DAvg 5 DEma 13 DEma 21 DEma 34 DEma 55 DEma LL3 5265
5275 5261 5262 5272 5281 5279 5247 LL4 5,253
              LL5 5,233
FIBO Retracement table
From To Fall/Rise 23.60% 38.20% 50% 61.80% 73.60% 80%
5206 5274 (68) 5258 5248 5240 5232 5224 5220
5379 5191 188 5235 5263 5285 5307 5329 5341
5136 5379 (243) 5322 5286 5258 5229 5200 5185
5499 5136 363 5222 5275 5318 5360 5403 5426
5171 5499 (328) 5422 5374 5335 5296 5258 5237
5630 5136 494 5253 5325 5383 5441 5500 5531

Thursday, April 12, 2012

NIFTY getting ready for 12-04-2012

Yesterday's bounce and retracements were swift. Closed at the pivot level 5227 for today which is just above the daily low EMA. Interesting to watch as how the market will open today. If it opens down then immediate level to look for is 5209 hourly low EMA and pivot support 5191 which happens to be the low recorded yesterday. At the moment the trend appears to be mildly +ve. If the market sustains above 5255 [5 day EMA] then it can go towards the 5300+ range. Key level to watch out for are 5252 which is 80% retracement of the fall from 5263 to 5206 which happened yesterday afternoon.











Wednesday, April 11, 2012

Slow but study down move

Nifty has closed below its 5 DEma, which is 5269. Hence day trend remains down. Chances are that it may go down until 5150 range before commencing upward journey towards 5450/5650 range. This down move may consume little more time may resemble the down move from 5630 to 5171 or 5499 to 5136. If it breaks 5090 range then more downside may be expected.

Pivot : Nifty has closed above its pivot level 5237. Hence chances are that it may go up to 5262 range before retracing.





Tuesday, April 10, 2012

Done 61.8% of the retracement for the rise from 5136 to 5379

Yesterday nifty has completed the 61.8% retracement for the rise from 5136 to 5379. If Nifty is able t manage to stay above 5251 which is the 5 Hr EMA then it may march towards 5282 5 Day EMA. This will be the resistance which once crossed then it may go towards 5320 area. If 5349 is crossed them the complete trend reverses to upwards and may march higher towards 5450 / 5650.

Daily Pivot:
S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
5152 5190 5212 5250 5272 5310 5332

Tuesday, April 3, 2012

Closed above 55 DMA

Nifty touched a high of 5378 and a low of 5344 and closed at 5359 above 55 day DMA of 5345. However it has closed below wednesday's pivot of 5360. Tomorrow if it manage to stay above this pivot 5360 may take it to 5374/5395 or else it may dip to 5347/5327.

5321 happens to be 23.6% retracement point of the rise from 5136 to today's high of 5378. A dip below 5184 may indicate the trend reversal to downwards. until then it may just be the retracement and the major trend remains up towards 5674.

Why I started this blog?

My first idea about this blog is to keep track of my thoughts and make notes. I have been finding it very difficult to locate all my notes in a single place. Many a times I spend time in searching for them. May be later I may open it up for everyone to take a look at them and use them if that suites you.